TrendForce said that the 8-inch capacity utilization rate in the second half of the year has dropped to 50-60%, and the capacity utilization rate of 8-inch wafer foundries is lower than that in the first half.
Heading into 2024, quarterly 8-inch capacity utilization will be on par with, and possibly lower than, Q4 2023 numbers, indicating a distinct lack of recovery indicators.
However, starting in the second quarter of 2024, TrendForce believes that inventory levels are expected to decline and return to a healthier balance, although clarity on end sales remains unclear due to overall economic risks.
Subsequent regular restocking and the additional impetus of orders moving to Taiwanese foundries (due to the decoupling from mainland China) should prevent further declines in 8-inch utilization.
The average annual utilization rate of 8-inch wafers is expected to be around 60-70% in 2024.
By 2024, China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. and Huahong Grace are expected to surpass their Taiwanese and Korean counterparts in 8-inch utilization. HHGrance may even rebound to 80-90%.
After TI lowered PMIC prices, TSMC is facing a callback in PMIC orders. TSMC’s 8-inch utilization rate is expected to drop below 60% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 24.
United Microelectronics (UMC) and PSMC are preparing to remain above 50% during this period.
Samsung prioritizes the production of 8-inch large-size driver ICs, CIS and smartphone PMICs. Its 8-inch utilization hit a slump in 2H23 and is expected to be around 50% for full-year 2024.
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