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TrendForce: DRAM prices are expected to rise 13-18% in the fourth quarter

Sunday,Dec 10,2023

 TrendForce said DRAM prices rose 18% quarter-on-quarter to $13.48 billion in the third quarter and are expected to rise 13-18% in the fourth quarter. The DRAM industry will see a major leap forward in the third quarter, with total revenue soaring to $13.48 billion, an 18% increase from the previous quarter.

 
The three major manufacturers all achieved revenue growth in the third quarter. Samsung's revenue rose about 15.9% to $5.25 billion, helped by solid demand for its high-density products and its 1alpha nm DDR5.
 
Among manufacturers, SK Hynix had the most significant growth, increasing by 34.4% to approximately US$4.626 billion. The market share gap with Samsung was significantly narrowed to less than 5%.
 
Micron's revenue rose about 4.2% to $3.075 billion.
 
Samsung expanded its production cuts at the end of the third quarter, mainly targeting DDR4 products with high inventory levels. Cuts are expected to reach 30% in the fourth quarter, reducing overall wafer input. Demand is expected to recover in 2H24, and Samsung plans to increase wafer investment starting from 2Q24.
 
Benefiting from the growth in HBM and DDR5 shipments, SK Hynix expects production capacity and wafer investment to increase slightly by the end of the year and to grow steadily in the next quarter, in line with the growing market penetration of DDR5.
 
Micron Technology earlier reduced production and currently maintains relatively healthy inventory levels. The company has begun increasing wafer investment in the fourth quarter of 2023, focusing mainly on the 1beta nm advanced process. Wafer input is expected to continue growing slightly in 2024, with a focus on the transition to more advanced manufacturing processes.

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