According to South Korean media outlet Chosun Biz, citing data from market research firm Omdia, Samsung Electronics' DRAM wafer production is projected to reach 7.93 million wafers in 2026, an increase of approximately 5% from 7.59 million wafers in 2025. SK Hynix's DRAM production is expected to increase from 5.97 million wafers in 2025 to 6.48 million wafers in 2026, an increase of approximately 8%. However, due to the potential for short-term capacity losses caused by the upgrade to the 10nm sixth-generation DRAM (1c) process, the actual increase in production may be lower than expected.
Micron's annual production is projected to remain at approximately 3.6 million wafers, flat compared to 2025. Despite the increased capacity from the three major DRAM manufacturers, a significant gap remains compared to market demand. Analysis by South Korean firm KB Securities shows that the customer DRAM demand fulfillment rate is only around 60%, and for server DRAM, it is even less than 50%.
To cope with the growing demand for AI servers, DRAM suppliers are prioritizing advanced processes and new production lines for servers and HBM products, which may lead to PC and smartphone manufacturers struggling to secure sufficient memory supply. Furthermore, Samsung's new P4 plant at its Pyeongtaek campus is not expected to begin production until after 2027, and SK Hynix's Longin semiconductor cluster will also require time to significantly increase its capacity. Therefore, the global DRAM supply shortage is unlikely to be alleviated in the short term.
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