TrendForce points out that with the significant increase in conventional DRAM prices since the second half of 2025, the supply shortage in the memory market continues to worsen. The three major DRAM manufacturers are expected to gain stronger pricing power in the 2027 HBM negotiations, predicting a multiple increase in HBM contract prices.
TrendForce states that because HBM uses an annual pricing mechanism, price adjustments lag significantly behind the spot and quarterly contract markets. Entering the second quarter of 2026, suppliers and customers have already begun negotiations regarding the mainstream 2027 product, HBM4.
Considering the continued tight DRAM supply and the significantly increased difficulty and cost of HBM manufacturing, manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron intend to significantly raise their 2027 HBM prices.
From a profitability perspective, TrendForce data shows that HBM's per-wafer production value was surpassed by DDR5 64GB RDIMM in Q1 2026, and HBM's profit margin is also lower than that of high-capacity server DRAM products. To maintain profitability, manufacturers will readjust HBM and traditional DRAM production capacity allocation based on HBM price negotiation results.
On the demand side, the main driver of HBM demand growth in 2026 will be the upgrade of AI ASIC platforms, including Google TPUs and self-developed chips from major cloud providers. The HBM capacity per AI chip will increase from 96GB and 192GB to 216GB and 288GB.
In 2027, with the launch of NVIDIA's new generation Rubin Ultra platform, the HBM capacity per GPU will further increase to 384GB. Coupled with the continued increase in AI ASIC shipments, this will drive another surge in HBM demand.
TrendForce predicts that HBM wafer starts will account for approximately 30% of total DRAM wafer starts in 2027, up from 18% in 2025; HBM bit supply will also increase from 8% to approximately 13%. As HBM continues to squeeze traditional DRAM capacity, coupled with strong demand from AI infrastructure, the profit structure of the memory industry will further shift towards HBM in 2027.
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