An Omdia research report reveals future market trends. The advancement of several key technologies, as well as the performance of different regions and vendors, will profoundly impact the development of cellular IoT.
Market Outlook: Connections to Reach 5.1 Billion in Six Years
According to Omdia research, the cellular IoT market will experience rapid expansion over the next six years. Global cellular IoT connections are projected to reach 5.1 billion by 2030. This significant growth is primarily driven by three key technologies: 5G RedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and 4G LTE Category 1bis modules.
Key Technologies: Opportunities and Challenges of 5G RedCap
5G RedCap plays a key role in the cellular IoT market. It is positioned as a connectivity solution for mid-range devices, particularly those that do not require advanced 5G features such as ultra-reliable low-latency communication (uRLLC) or enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB). Starting in 2025, 5G RedCap deployment is expected to accelerate. However, initial deployment has been slower than expected. Delays in 5G SA (standalone) deployment delayed the widespread commercialization of RedCap by several years. The first RedCap devices are now available in the US market, marking the official start of the transition from 4G to 5G mid-range connectivity.
Regional Landscape: Asia Pacific Leads Growth
Asia Pacific dominates the global IoT market. In 2024, the region will contribute over 67% of global IoT module shipments and 80% of IoT connections. The automotive industry is a key driver of this growth, with increasing consumer demand for smart cars with integrated 5G capabilities driving the rapid development of in-vehicle connectivity modules. Andrew Brown, head of IoT research at Omdia, noted that Asia Pacific's dominance in the IoT market highlights the shift in global technology leadership toward Asia, which will have a profound impact on future IoT innovation and deployment strategies.
Shipment Status: Significant Growth in Q1 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, cellular IoT module shipments continued their strong rebound, increasing 23% year-on-year, achieving the fifth consecutive quarter of shipment growth. The resolution of excess inventory issues that had previously plagued the market was a key driver of shipment growth.
By manufacturer, the top five global cellular IoT module manufacturers, based on shipments in the first quarter of 2025, were Quectel Communications, China Mobile, Fibocom, Sunsea, and Telit Cinterion. Together, they accounted for 73% of the global cellular IoT module market. Among them, Quectel Communications held a 40% market share, with shipments increasing by 31% year-on-year, demonstrating continued expansion in core LTE modules and smart modules. China Mobile held a 15% market share, showing rapid growth and a 100% year-on-year increase in shipments, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of LTE Cat 1 bis modules. Fibocom held an 8% market share, with shipments increasing by 28% year-on-year, benefiting from rising demand in Asia and Europe for sectors such as smart energy, automotive, and industrial IoT. Sunsea Intelligent held a 5% market share, with shipments increasing by 5% year-on-year, demonstrating relatively stable performance but relatively slow growth. Telit Cinterion held a 4% market share and, as one of the top five Western vendors, saw shipments increase by 10% year-on-year.
From a technical perspective, LTE Cat 1 bis is developing strongly, with shipments increasing by 122% year-on-year. Its single-antenna design simplifies integration, making it an ideal choice for tracking, logistics, metering, and payment terminals. 5G module shipments increased by 36% year-on-year. RedCap is gradually becoming a solution for mid-range IoT, striking a balance between cost, power consumption, and performance. Target applications include law enforcement recorders, hunting cameras, industrial sensors, and wearable devices.
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