According to the institute's estimates, the semiconductor device market size will reach ¥157.9 trillion in 2026 and is expected to climb to ¥224 trillion by 2031.
The survey covered a wide range of areas from December 2025 to February 2026. It included 15 types of semiconductor devices supporting generative AI, edge AI, and digital/green transformation; 14 types of semiconductor-related materials; 3 types of semiconductor-related equipment; 3 types of other component materials; and 4 major application areas.
The main drivers of semiconductor device demand growth are server CPUs, AI accelerator chips, data center switch ICs, solid-state drive controllers, and various types of memory, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Notably, driven by factors such as soaring memory prices, semiconductor device demand is projected to increase by more than 60% in 2026 compared to the previous year.
Specifically, the market size for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor devices is projected to reach ¥40.7 trillion by 2026, while the market size for other semiconductor devices is expected to reach ¥117.1 trillion. In the long term, capital investment in AI and data center sectors is expected to be even more active. By 2031, the market size is projected to reach ¥224 trillion, with the AI ??semiconductor device market reaching ¥130 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the total.
The report focuses on three key markets: “Memory (DRAM, HBM, NAND),” “AI accelerator chips,” and “Data center switch integrated circuits.”
In the memory market, DRAM is expected to nearly triple in size by 2026 compared to the previous year, driven by factors such as soaring prices. However, capacity growth is projected to be only around 10%. The supply-demand balance is expected to improve from the second half of 2027, with prices returning to 2025 levels. Therefore, the DRAM market size is projected to reach ¥23.3 trillion in 2031 and ¥41.2 trillion in 2026.
The HBM market is expanding rapidly due to the growing demand for high-performance AI servers. Investment in HBM manufacturing remains active, and the memory capacity installed in devices continues to increase, ensuring the market remains at a high level. The market size is projected to reach ¥49.7 trillion by 2031, with an estimated ¥7.4 trillion in 2026.
The NAND market is also expanding due to the increasing capacity of server solid-state drives (SSDs). E-SSD applications, primarily for servers, are expected to account for more than 50% of total sales by 2026. The market size is projected to reach ¥41 trillion in 2026 and ¥29 trillion in 2031.
In addition, the AI ??accelerator chip market is projected to reach ¥71.52 trillion by 2031, with an estimated value of ¥31.126 trillion in 2026. The data center switch IC market is projected to reach ¥8.435 trillion, with an estimated value of ¥1.49 trillion in 2026.
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